We are back on the newsletter grind! I took a bit of a break from this publication to enjoy summer (went to west Michigan a couple of times), close on our recent apartment building (more down below), and do some pondering on how I want this publication to fit onto my workflow and look / feel. We are expecting our second child any day now so I could go into work hibernation again real soon… In the meantime.
I’m back. I miss writing this, dearly.
Below we are talkin’:
The Indiana Housing Market in September
Mortgage Rate Outlook
Client Win
Upcoming Events & Roots Podcast Released
The Indiana Market
The hottest counties in Indiana right now are Hamilton and Adams; the weakest markets mainly sit in north central Indiana and Hoosier National Forest areas
Here’s the truth: in April, this map would have been all red (minus a few rogue counties), the truth is that early this year the Indiana housing market shot up like a rocket.
The turning point was mid-June in the midst of the Iran conflict when rates jumped about 500-600 basis points almost overnight due to fears over inflation returning.
This may be surprising but the strongest market right now is Fort Wayne, where each township in the city is in a hot market. In Indianapolis, nearly every township is in a warm market outside of smack dab in Center Township, which has cooled substantially.
However, the tides are turning even in the strongest of central Indiana markets — Noblesville and Zionsville have now crept up past 18 days on market median. Which let’s be honest is still a very strong market, all things considered.
Despite punches thrown at it, the Indy market stayed incredibly resilient this year, topping out a new record median price near $325,000. Nationally, median price has still not crested heights seen in 2022.
Indy set another median price record this year in June
Nationally, median price growth has been more sluggish not returning to 2022 highs
Mortgage Rates
Quick market update: rate expectations just shifted
Big shift in the rate conversation this week. Here's what's going on.
What changed with the Fed
Last week the market was leaning toward the Fed holding rates steady in September
That changed after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments at Jackson Hole, plus new concerns about inflation and energy prices
CME FedWatch now shows about a 60% chance of a 0.25% rate hike in September, up from 37% a week ago
A hike isn't guaranteed. But the market has clearly shifted toward expecting a more hawkish Fed, and mortgage rates already moved on that shift
Where rates stand today
Mortgage News Daily has the average 30-year fixed rate at about 6.81%
That's an average, not what every buyer will get
Your actual rate depends on credit profile, loan type, down payment, property type, and lender
Some lenders will use discount points or cut their own margin to offer a lower rate, especially when they're competing for your business
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Indy Investor Take
I recently spoke to Ivan Barratt, the Owner / CEO of BAM Companies during a podcast interview (coming out soon).
He told us now is the time to put deals together, and he is aggressively pursuing that. In fact, he said almost every asset they are buying at a price under 2022-2023 levels. It reminds me of the Warren Buffet refrain, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
There are reasons to be fearful: Inflation is likely going to hit the 3% range again, rates will likely stay elevated for longer than most of us are comfortable, and operating costs of owning a property are at all time highs.
On the positive side, you’re seeing inventory at once again healthy levels, mortgage rates staying in relatively healthy bounds due to positive “mortgage spreads", and rents finally on the rise again rents went up 0.1% nationally in August (ApartmentList).
Smart investors are making intelligent moves, not rash moves like we saw in the COVID era. Deals have to have positive margin and some value creation, otherwise stick your cash in a money market and let it do it’s thing. Those deals are becoming available as operators change over in this transitioning market.
Recent Client Win
Our team recently helped our client Cody buy this duplex in Greenfield, IN for around $200,000. It had two tenants living in it, and needed a substantial cosmetic refresh.
We helped him negotiate a contract that moved the tenants elsewhere so that he could come in and freshen it up and operate it as a Medium-Term rental.
After laying new LVP, re-staging it, completing the inspection repairs, he approached us with the idea of simply putting it back on the market for sale as a flip… Not the OG plan but we looked into it…
The result? We are listing it today for $275,000 and it should rent out for around $1200 per side, or $1600-2000 / mo as a furnished rental. He put about $30,000 into the renovation.
This type of deal is exactly the ones I’m seeing intelligent investors make → Buying at a healthy basis, adding the right smart upgrades w/o breaking the bank, and creating value quickly.
P.S. I’m seeing a lot of wins on the periphery of Indy → Look out for great deals in places like Lebanon, Danville, Greenfield, Fortville etc. as these markets have stable rental markets and great margins.
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